Pre-pipeline — marketing states
MQL
Marketing Qualified Lead
not in pipeline
Definition: Shows an intent signal — form fill, content download, demo request — but sales has not yet reviewed.
Exit to Stage 0: Sales reviews and accepts. If rejected, return to nurture or discard.
Note: Only necessary if you have inbound volume. Pure outbound shops can skip this gate entirely.
Exit to Stage 0: Sales reviews and accepts. If rejected, return to nurture or discard.
Note: Only necessary if you have inbound volume. Pure outbound shops can skip this gate entirely.
SAL
Sales Accepted Lead — becomes Stage 0
enters pipeline
This is Stage 0. Sales has reviewed the lead and confirmed it's worth pursuing. Now in pipeline, but no forecast value yet.
At small companies: If one person handles both SDR and AE functions, SAL simply means "I decided to work this." With SDR/AE splits, it's the formal AE acceptance handoff.
SQL moment: The first genuine two-way interaction. This is when Stage 0 becomes Stage 1.
At small companies: If one person handles both SDR and AE functions, SAL simply means "I decided to work this." With SDR/AE splits, it's the formal AE acceptance handoff.
SQL moment: The first genuine two-way interaction. This is when Stage 0 becomes Stage 1.
Active pipeline
0
Target / Prospecting
SAL accepted — outreach underway
No forecast value
Definition
Sales has accepted the lead (SAL). Outreach is planned or underway. No two-way interaction confirmed yet. This is active prospecting — not passive interest.
SQL signal to watch for
Any positive two-way response — a reply, a meeting booked, a warm intro that leads to dialogue. That's the SQL event that moves this to Stage 1.
Exit criteria
- Two-way contact confirmed
- Discovery scheduled or mutually agreed to
Pipeline pollution starts here. Do not move leads to Stage 1 without confirmed two-way engagement. A sent email is not engagement.
SQL confirmed →
1
Engaged / Discovery Initiated
Two-way contact confirmed
Early stage
Definition
Two-way interaction confirmed. Discovery is scheduled or has occurred. The rep believes there is a credible reason to continue pursuing.
Forecast weight
10–20%
Do not include in commit forecast. Include in pipeline coverage analysis only.
Exit criteria
- Clear problem or pain identified
- Right buying persona engaged — not just a gatekeeper
- Prospect has agreed to a defined next step
Common failure: reps move any warm reply here. Require actual pain identification before advancing. "Interested in learning more" is not Stage 1 exit criteria.
2
Qualified Opportunity
Pain real + acknowledged, mutual interest confirmed
Qualified
Definition
Pain is real and acknowledged by the prospect. Initial solution fit established. Both sides have expressed mutual interest in continuing the conversation.
Forecast weight
20–35%
Include in pipeline coverage. Not in commit forecast until Stage 4.
Exit criteria — all required, not any
- Defined use case confirmed — specific, not generic
- Key stakeholders identified beyond the champion
- Early buying process understood: who decides, who influences
- Timeline is plausible, not aspirational ("Q3" with no budget cycle context doesn't count)
Most pipeline bloat lives here. All exit criteria must be met — not some. If a rep can't answer "who is the decision maker and what is their buying process," the deal stays in Stage 2.
3
Solution Validation
Active evaluation underway
Active eval
Definition
Prospect is evaluating your solution seriously. Demo or proof of value has been aligned to their specific use case — not a generic pitch. They are comparing, not exploring.
Forecast weight
35–50%
Exit criteria
- Technical fit confirmed by the right technical stakeholder — not just the champion
- Business fit confirmed — ROI or value narrative agreed upon
- Evaluation path defined: what does "done" look like for the prospect
- Competitive landscape known — you know who else is in the room
4
Business Case / Decision
Internal alignment in motion
Late stage
Definition
Prospect is building internal alignment around your solution. Commercial terms are being discussed. Your champion is actively selling on your behalf internally.
Sub-states
4a — Active evaluation
Prospect is still comparing options. Decision criteria being defined or weighted. You are in consideration but the field has not narrowed.
4b — Finalist
You are one of 1–2 remaining options. The evaluation field has narrowed. Prospect is moving toward a decision, not still exploring. Economic buyer is engaged. Increase forecast probability and rep attention — deals are won or lost at this sub-state.
Exit criteria — all required
- Budget confirmed — a real number, not "we have budget"
- Decision criteria documented and agreed upon with the prospect
- Economic buyer identified and personally engaged by the rep (not just known)
- Procurement path defined — legal, security, AP process known
- Decision timeline confirmed with the buyer, not just the champion
Forecast weight
4a — 40–50%
4b Finalist — 60–70%
If you cannot name the economic buyer, this is Stage 3 — not Stage 4. Finalist status without economic buyer access is a champion trap. Your champion telling you that you're a finalist is not the same as the buyer confirming it.
5
Commit & Negotiate
Decision made — execution in progress
Near close
Definition
The prospect has made a decision. The remaining work is execution — getting to a signed contract. Evaluation is over. Both sides are working toward close, not still selling.
Sub-states — in order
5a — Verbal commit
Economic buyer has said yes. Decision is made. Contract has been sent or is being prepared. No redlines yet. This is the pivot from selling to closing — the single most important moment in the deal cycle.
↓ contract issued
5b — Negotiating
Redlines active. Legal, procurement, or security review underway. Prospect is working to close, not reconsidering. Scope, terms, or pricing adjustments may be in flight — but the decision itself is not in question.
The verbal commit is the sequence trigger. Redlines exist because the decision has already been made — that's what makes 5a come first. A deal in negotiation without a verbal commit is still Stage 4.
Forecast weight
5a — 80%
5b — 90%
Exit criteria
- Signed contract → Closed Won
- Clear withdrawal or loss → Closed Lost
A deal stalled in 5b with no signature timeline is not committed — it's at risk. Recycle to Stage 4 or flag for executive escalation. "In legal" without a close date is not a forecast number.
Terminal states
6a
Closed Won
Signed contract
Contract signed. Trigger CS / onboarding handoff immediately — time-to-value starts now.
Document win reasons: why us, why now, who championed internally, what tipped the decision. This is your pattern library.
Document win reasons: why us, why now, who championed internally, what tipped the decision. This is your pattern library.
6b
Closed Lost
Deal did not close
Required: log a loss reason before closing. Choose from: lost to competitor, lost to no decision, lost on price, lost on fit, lost on timing.
If lost for timing — not fit — set a re-engage date 60–90 days out. Closed Lost is not a dead end for timing losses. It's a pipeline source most teams ignore.
If lost for timing — not fit — set a re-engage date 60–90 days out. Closed Lost is not a dead end for timing losses. It's a pipeline source most teams ignore.