Pre-pipeline — marketing states
MQL
Marketing Qualified Lead
not in pipeline
Definition: Shows an intent signal — form fill, content download, demo request — but sales has not yet reviewed.
Exit to Stage 0: Sales reviews and accepts. If rejected, return to nurture or discard.
Note: Only necessary if you have inbound volume. Pure outbound shops can skip this gate entirely.
Exit to Stage 0: Sales reviews and accepts. If rejected, return to nurture or discard.
Note: Only necessary if you have inbound volume. Pure outbound shops can skip this gate entirely.
SAL
Sales Accepted Lead — becomes Stage 0
enters pipeline
This is Stage 0. Sales has reviewed the lead and confirmed it's worth pursuing. Now in pipeline, but no forecast value yet.
At small companies: If one person handles both SDR and AE functions, SAL simply means "I decided to work this." With SDR/AE splits, it's the formal AE acceptance handoff.
SQL moment: The first genuine two-way interaction. This is when Stage 0 becomes Stage 1.
At small companies: If one person handles both SDR and AE functions, SAL simply means "I decided to work this." With SDR/AE splits, it's the formal AE acceptance handoff.
SQL moment: The first genuine two-way interaction. This is when Stage 0 becomes Stage 1.
Active pipeline
0
Target / Prospecting
SAL accepted — outreach underway
No forecast value
Definition
Sales has accepted the lead (SAL). Outreach is planned or underway. No two-way interaction confirmed yet. This is active prospecting — not passive interest.
SQL signal to watch for
Any positive two-way response — a reply, a meeting booked, a warm intro that leads to dialogue. That's the SQL event that moves this to Stage 1.
Exit criteria
- Two-way contact confirmed
- Discovery scheduled or mutually agreed to
Pipeline pollution starts here. Do not move leads to Stage 1 without confirmed two-way engagement. A sent email is not engagement.
SQL confirmed →
1
Qualified Opportunity
Two-way engagement confirmed → pain qualified
Qualified
Definition
Two-way interaction is confirmed and discovery is underway. Entry is easy — a real reply, a booked meeting, a warm intro that turned into dialogue. Exit is hard: pain is real and acknowledged by the prospect, with a specific use case and a credible buying process. This single stage spans first contact through full qualification.
Forecast weight
15–35%
Lower band on entry, upper band as qualification firms up. Do not include in commit forecast — pipeline coverage analysis only.
Entry trigger (SQL)
Confirmed two-way engagement. A sent email is not engagement.
Exit criteria — all required, not any
- Pain is real and acknowledged by the prospect — not assumed by the rep
- Defined use case confirmed — specific, not generic
- Right buying persona engaged — not just a gatekeeper
- Key stakeholders identified beyond the champion
- Buying process understood: who decides, who influences
- Timeline is plausible, not aspirational ("Q3" with no budget cycle context doesn't count)
Easy in, hard out. Most pipeline bloat lives here. All exit criteria must be met — not some. A confirmed reply gets a deal into Stage 1; it does not advance it. "Interested in learning more" is not qualification. If a rep can't answer "who is the decision maker and what is their buying process," the deal stays in Stage 1.
2
Solution Validation
Active evaluation underway — where real discovery happens
Active eval
Definition
Prospect is evaluating your solution seriously. Demo or proof of value has been aligned to their specific use case — not a generic pitch. They are comparing, not exploring. This is where the deepest discovery occurs: why now, what breaks if they don't move, and what success actually looks like surface here.
Forecast weight
35–50%
Exit criteria
- Technical fit confirmed by the right technical stakeholder — not just the champion
- Business fit confirmed — ROI or value narrative agreed upon
- Evaluation path defined: what does "done" look like for the prospect
- Competitive landscape known — you know who else is in the room
Discovery deepens here — it shouldn't start here. If you're learning the basics (pain, use case, who decides) for the first time in Stage 2, the deal was advanced too early. Send it back to Stage 1.
3
Business Case / Decision
Internal alignment in motion
Late stage
Definition
Prospect is building internal alignment around your solution. Commercial terms are being discussed. Your champion is actively selling on your behalf internally.
Sub-states
3a — Active evaluation
Prospect is still comparing options. Decision criteria being defined or weighted. You are in consideration but the field has not narrowed.
3b — Finalist
You are one of 1–2 remaining options. The evaluation field has narrowed. Prospect is moving toward a decision, not still exploring. Economic buyer is engaged. Increase forecast probability and rep attention — deals are won or lost at this sub-state.
Exit criteria — all required
- Budget confirmed — a real number, not "we have budget"
- Decision criteria documented and agreed upon with the prospect
- Economic buyer identified and personally engaged by the rep (not just known)
- Procurement path defined — legal, security, AP process known
- Decision timeline confirmed with the buyer, not just the champion
Forecast weight
3a — 40–50%
3b Finalist — 60–70%
If you cannot name the economic buyer, this is Stage 2 — not Stage 3. Finalist status without economic buyer access is a champion trap. Your champion telling you that you're a finalist is not the same as the buyer confirming it.
4
Commit & Negotiate
Decision made — execution in progress
Near close
Definition
The prospect has made a decision. The remaining work is execution — getting to a signed contract. Evaluation is over. Both sides are working toward close, not still selling.
Sub-states — in order
4a — Verbal commit
Economic buyer has said yes. Decision is made. Contract has been sent or is being prepared. No redlines yet. This is the pivot from selling to closing — the single most important moment in the deal cycle.
↓ contract issued
4b — Negotiating
Redlines active. Legal, procurement, or security review underway. Prospect is working to close, not reconsidering. Scope, terms, or pricing adjustments may be in flight — but the decision itself is not in question.
The verbal commit is the sequence trigger. Redlines exist because the decision has already been made — that's what makes 4a come first. A deal in negotiation without a verbal commit is still Stage 3.
Forecast weight
4a — 80%
4b — 90%
Exit criteria
- Signed contract → Closed Won
- Clear withdrawal or loss → Closed Lost
A deal stalled in 4b with no signature timeline is not committed — it's at risk. Recycle to Stage 3 or flag for executive escalation. "In legal" without a close date is not a forecast number.
Terminal states
5a
Closed Won
Signed contract
Contract signed. Trigger CS / onboarding handoff immediately — time-to-value starts now.
Document win reasons: why us, why now, who championed internally, what tipped the decision. This is your pattern library.
Document win reasons: why us, why now, who championed internally, what tipped the decision. This is your pattern library.
5b
Closed Lost
Deal did not close
Required: log a loss reason before closing. Choose from: lost to competitor, lost to no decision, lost on price, lost on fit, lost on timing.
If lost for timing — not fit — set a re-engage date 60–90 days out. Closed Lost is not a dead end for timing losses. It's a pipeline source most teams ignore.
If lost for timing — not fit — set a re-engage date 60–90 days out. Closed Lost is not a dead end for timing losses. It's a pipeline source most teams ignore.